SBTi targets and LCA: the data side of a science-based target

The Science Based Targets initiative (SBTi) is a validation mechanism that assesses whether company targets are consistent with the Paris Agreement temperature goals. Saying “we will cut 30 per cent by 2030” is easy; showing that the target is consistent with the global carbon budget is a methodological exercise.

It all starts with the base year

A target is defined relative to a base year inventory. If that inventory is weak the target is weak: a poorly measured base year both invites reporting reductions that are not real, and can make the target impossible as data quality improves. Announcing a target before firming up the base year is the most common mistake.

SBTi requires base year recalculation on methodology changes, acquisitions or divestments. Keeping a record of which figure was calculated by which method is therefore a discipline required for the life of the target.

Absolute reduction or intensity?

Absolute targets commit to reducing total emissions in tonnes. Intensity targets divide emissions by a unit of production or revenue. For a growing company an intensity target looks achievable while total emissions may still rise, so SBTi expects absolute reduction in most cases and accepts intensity targets only within specific sectoral approaches.

The sectoral decarbonisation approach applies to sectors such as cement and steel where per-product emissions are physically constrained. There the target follows the sector’s global pathway for emissions per tonne — which makes your product-level LCA result the measure for tracking the target.

The Scope 3 coverage rule

SBTi requires a Scope 3 target where Scope 3 exceeds a defined share of the total inventory. For manufacturers that threshold is almost always crossed. Target validation therefore cannot be completed without supply-chain data.

• A Scope 3 target can be an absolute reduction or a supplier engagement target
• A supplier engagement target measures suppliers setting their own science-based targets
• Product-level abatement is directly measurable in Categories 1 and 11
• A spend-based Scope 3 calculation is insufficient for tracking a target

From target to action: ranking abatement levers

Once a target is set the question becomes: what does each intervention cost per tonne of CO₂e? That is a marginal abatement cost curve, and it cannot be drawn reliably without an LCA model. Material substitution, energy source changes, process efficiency and product design changes each run as a scenario on the model and their effect is measured.